Volume 42 Issue 10
Oct.  2023
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Di Chen, Qizhen Sun. Characteristics of extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere and their response to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2023, 42(10): 10-22. doi: 10.1007/s13131-023-2277-4
Citation: Di Chen, Qizhen Sun. Characteristics of extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere and their response to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2023, 42(10): 10-22. doi: 10.1007/s13131-023-2277-4

Characteristics of extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere and their response to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice

doi: 10.1007/s13131-023-2277-4
Funds:  The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 2022YFF0802002.
More Information
  • Corresponding author: qzsun.tj@foxmail.com
  • Received Date: 2022-10-27
  • Accepted Date: 2022-12-01
  • Available Online: 2023-12-18
  • Publish Date: 2023-10-01
  • Extratropical cyclones are critical weather systems that affect large-scale weather and climate changes at mid-high latitudes. However, prior research shows that there are still great difficulties in predicting extratropical cyclones for occurrence, frequency, and position. In this study, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) are used to calculate the variance statistics of the MSLP to reveal extratropical cyclone activity (ECA). Based on the analysis of the change characteristics of ECA in the Northern Hemisphere, the intrinsic link between ECA in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice is explored. The results show that the maximum ECA mainly occurs in winter over the mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum ECA changes in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, which are the largest variations in the Northern Hemisphere, are independent of each other, and their mechanisms may be different. Furthermore, MSLP is a significant physical variable that affects ECA. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Index (NPI) are significant indices that impact ECA in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. The innovation of this paper is to explore the relationship between the activity of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and the abnormal changes in Arctic sea ice for the first time. The mechanism is that the abnormal changes in summer-autumn and winter Arctic sea ice lead to the phase transition of the NPI and NAO, respectively, and then cause the occurrence of ECA in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the ECA in the Northern Hemisphere by influencing the polar vortex and westerly jets. This is the first exploration of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere using Arctic sea ice, which can provide some references for the in-depth study and prediction of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • loading
  • Alexander L v, Tett S F B, Jonsson T. 2005. Recent observed changes in severe storms over the United Kingdom and Iceland. Geophysical Research Letters, 32. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022371
    Allan J C, Komar P D. 2006. Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes. Journal of Coastal Research, 22(3): 511–529
    Averkiev A S, Klevannyy K A. 2010. A case study of the impact of cyclonic trajectories on sea-level extremes in the Gulf of Finland. Continental Shelf Research, 30(6): 707–714. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2009.10.010
    Bader J, Mesquita M D S, Hodges K I, et al. 2011. A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes. Atmospheric Research, 101(4): 809–834. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.04.007
    Benesty J, Chen Jingdong, Huang Yiteng, et al. 2009. Pearson correlation coefficient. In: Cohen I, Huang Yiteng, Chen Jingdong, et al, eds. Noise Reduction in Speech Processing. Berlin: Springer.
    Bengtsson L, Hodges K I, Roeckner E. 2006. Storm tracks and climate change. Journal of Climate, 19(15): 3518–3543. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3815.1
    Black J, Johnson N C, Baxter S, et al. 2017. The predictors and forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns for lead times of 3–4 weeks. Monthly Weather Review, 145(7): 2855–2877. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0394.1
    Blender R, Fraedrich K, Lunkeit F. 1997. Identification of cyclone-track regimes in the North Atlantic. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 123, 727–741. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712353910
    Budikova D. 2009. Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: a review. Global and Planetary Change, 68(3): 149–163. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.04.001
    Chang E K, Fu Y. 2002. Interdecadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity. Journal of Climate, 15(6): 642–658,
    Chang E K M, Zheng Cheng, Lanigan P, et al. 2015. Significant modulation of variability and projected change in California winter precipitation by extratropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(14): 5983–5991. doi: 10.1002/2015GL064424
    Chen Di, Gao Shanhong, Chen Jinnian. 2016. Impact of the Indo-Pacific warm pool SST anomaly on Arctic sea ice variation. Chinese Journal of Polar Research (in Chinese), 28(1): 49–57
    Chen Di, Sun Qizhen. 2022a. Impact of global tropical sea surface temperature anomalies on the Arctic sea ice variation. Haiyang Xuebao (in Chinese), 44(12): 42–54
    Chen Di, Sun Qizhen. 2022b. Impact of rapid Arctic sea ice decline on China’s crop yield under global warming. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02757-x[2022-11-24
    Chen Di, Sun Qizhen. 2023. Northern Pacific extratropical cyclone variability and its linkage with Arctic sea ice changes. Climate Dynamics, 61(11): 5875–5885
    Chiang J C H, Lee S Y, Putnam A E, et al. 2014. South Pacific Split Jet, ITCZ shifts, and atmospheric north–south linkages during abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 406: 233–246. doi: 10.1016/j.jpgl.2014.09.012
    Colle B A, Booth J F, Chang E K M. 2015. A review of historical and future changes of extratropical cyclones and associated impacts along the US east coast. Current Climate Change Reports, 1: 125–143. doi: 10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7
    DelSole T, Trenary L, Tippett M K, et al. 2017. Predictability of week-3–4 average temperature and precipitation over the contiguous United States. Journal of Climate, 30(10): 3499–3512. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0567.1
    Donat M G, Leckebusch G C, Pinto J G, et al. 2010. Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases. International Journal of Climatology, 30(9): 1289–1300. doi: 10.1002/joc.1982
    Eichler T, Higgins W. 2006. Climatology and ENSO-related variability of North American extratropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 19(10): 2076–2093. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3725.1
    Favre A, Gershunov A. 2006. Extratropical cyclonic/anticyclonic activity in North-Eastern Pacific and air temperature extremes in western North America. Climate Dynamics, 26, 617–629. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0101-9
    Feser F, Barcikowska M, Krueger O, et al. 2015. Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe—a review. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(687): 350–382. doi: 10.1002/qj.2364
    Francis J A, Chan Weihan, Leathers D J, et al. 2009. Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(7): L07503. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037274
    Froude L S R. 2011. TIGGE: comparison of the prediction of southern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems. Weather and Forecasting, 26(3): 388–398. doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222457.1
    Fu Qiang, Zhong Linhao, Luo Dehai. 2016. Characteristics of extratropical cyclone activity at North America-Atlantic area in winter and its relationship with NAO. Marine Science Bulletin (in Chinese), 35(1): 46–53.
    Garfinkel C I, Schwartz C, Domeisen D I V, et al. 2018. Extratropical atmospheric predictability from the quasi-biennial oscillation in subseasonal forecast models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123(15): 7855–7866. doi: 10.1029/2018JD028724
    Geng Quanzhen, Sugi M. 2001. Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. Journal of Climate, 14(18): 3863–3873. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3863:VOTNAC>2.0.CO;2
    Ghatak D, Frei A, Gong G, et al. 2010. On the emergence of an Arctic amplification signal in terrestrial Arctic snow extent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115(D24): D24105. doi: 10.1029/2010JD014007
    Gong G, Entekhabi D, Cohen J. 2002. A large-ensemble model study of the wintertime AO-NAO and the role of interannual snow perturbations. Journal of Climate, 15(23): 3488–3499. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3488:ALEMSO>2.0.CO;2
    Graham N E, Diaz H F. 2001. Evidence for intensification of North Pacific winter cyclones since 1948. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82(9): 1869–1894. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1869:EFIONP>2.3.CO;2
    Guo Yanjuan, Shinoda T, Lin Jialin, et al. 2017. Variations of northern hemisphere storm track and extratropical cyclone activity associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation. Journal of Climate, 30(13): 4799–4818. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0513.1
    Haak U, Ulbrich U. 1996. Verification of an objective cyclone climatology for the North Atlantic. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 5, 24–30. https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/5/1996/24
    Hall R, Erdélyi R, Hanna E, et al. 2015. Drivers of North Atlantic polar front jet stream variability. International Journal of Climatology, 35(8): 1697–1720. doi: 10.1002/joc.4121
    Hannachi A, Jolliffe I T, Stephenson D B. 2007. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review. International Journal of Climatology, 27(9): 1119–1152. doi: 10.1002/joc.1499
    Haurwitz M W, Brier G W. 1981. A critique of the superposed epoch analysis method: its application to solar-weather relations. Monthly Weather Review, 109(10): 2074–2079. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<2074:ACOTSE>2.0.CO;2
    Haynes P H, McIntyre M E, Shepherd T G, et al. 1991. On the “Downward Control” of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 48(4): 651–678. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1991)048<0651:OTCOED>2.0.CO;2
    Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, et al. 2020. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730): 1999–2049. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803
    Hoskins B J, Hodges K I. 2002. New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59(6), 1041−1061
    Kalman D. 1996. A singularly valuable decomposition: the SVD of a matrix. The College Mathematics Journal, 27(1): 2–23. doi: 10.1080/07468342.1996.11973744
    Kaplan A. 2011. Sidebar 1. 1: patterns and indices of climate variability [in “State of the Climate in 2010”]. BAMS, 92(6): S20-S25
    Kidston J, Scaife A A, Hardiman S C, et al. 2015. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather. Nature Geoscience, 8(6): 433–440. doi: 10.1038/NGEO2424
    Knippertz P, Ulbrich U, Speth P. 2000. Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment. Climate Research, 15(2): 109–122
    Kobashi F, Doi H, Iwasaka N. 2019. Sea surface cooling induced by extratropical cyclones in the subtropical North Pacific: Mechanism and interannual variability. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(3): 2179–2195
    Laken B A, Čalogović J. 2013. Composite analysis with Monte Carlo methods: an example with cosmic rays and clouds. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 3: A29. doi: 10.1051/swsc/2013051
    Lee Y Y, Lim G H. 2012. Dependency of the North Pacific winter storm tracks on the zonal distribution of MJO convection. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D14): D14101. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016417
    Lionello P, Boldrin U, Giorgi F. 2008. Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Climate Dynamics, 30, 657–671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0315-0
    Luo Dehai, Cha Jing, Feldstein S B. 2012. Weather regime transitions and the interannual variability of the north Atlantic oscillation. Part I: a likely connection. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69(8): 2329–2346. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0289.1
    Luo Dehai, Gong Tingting, Diao Yina. 2007. Dynamics of eddy-driven low-frequency dipole modes. Part III: meridional displacement of westerly jet anomalies during two phases of NAO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 64(9): 3232–3248. doi: 10.1175/JAS3998.1
    Ma C G, Chang E K M. 2017. Impacts of storm-track variations on wintertime extreme weather events over the continental United States. Journal of Climate, 30(12): 4601–4624. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0560.1
    Marshall A G, Scaife A A, Ineson S. 2009. Enhanced seasonal prediction of European winter warming following volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 22(23): 6168–6180. doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3145.1
    Maycock A C, Keeley S P E, Charlton-Perez A J, et al. 2011. Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction. Climate Dynamics, 36(1): 309–321. doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0665-x
    Mendes D, Souza E P, Marengo J A, Mendes M C D. 2010. Climatology of extratropical cyclones over the South American-southern oceans sector. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 100: 239–250, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0161-6
    Overland J E, Wang M. 2010. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 62(1), 1−9
    Pinto J G, Spangehl T, Ulbrich U, et al. 2006. Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 15(3): 279–291. doi: 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0128
    Pinto J G, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch G C, et al. 2007. Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM. Climate Dynamics, 29(2): 195–210. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0230-4
    Raible C C. 2007. On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(7): L07703. doi: 10.1029/2006GL029084
    Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, et al. 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 108(D14): 4407. doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670
    Sanders F, Gyakum J R. 1980. Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the “Bomb”. Monthly Weather Review, 108(10): 1589–1606. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1589:SDCOT>2.0.CO;2
    Scaife A A, Spangehl T, Fereday D R, et al. 2012. Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction. Climate Dynamics, 38(9–10): 2089–2097. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7
    Serreze M C, Carse F, Barry R G, et al. 1997. Icelandic low cyclone activity: climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of Climate, 10(3): 453–464. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0453:ILCACF>2.0.CO;2
    Tian Di, Wood E F, Yuan Xing. 2017. CFSv2-based sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast skill over the contiguous United States. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(3): 1477–1490. doi: 10.5194/hess-21-1477-2017
    Trenberth K E, Hurrell J W. 1994. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dynamics 9, 303–319.
    Vihma T. 2014. Effects of arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: a review. Surveys in Geophysics, 35(5): 1175–1214. doi: 10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0
    Wallace J M, Lim G H, Blackmon M L. 1988. Relationship between cyclone tracks, anticyclone tracks and baroclinic waveguides. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 45(3): 439–462. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0439:RBCTAT>2.0.CO;2
    Walter K, Graf H F. 2005. The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 5(1): 239–248. doi: 10.5194/acp-5-239-2005
    Wu Bingyi, Zhang Renhe, D’Arrigo R, et al. 2013. On the relationship between winter sea ice and summer atmospheric circulation over Eurasia. Journal of Climate, 26(15): 5523–5536. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00524.1
    Xiang Baoqiang, Lin S J, Zhao Ming, et al. 2019. Subseasonal week 3–5 surface air temperature prediction during boreal wintertime in a GFDL model. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(1): 416–425. doi: 10.1029/2018GL081314
    Yang Minghao, Li Chongyin, Luo Dehai, et al. 2022. Mechanical and thermal impacts of the Tibetan-Iranian plateau on the North Pacific storm track: numerical experiments by FGOALS-f3-L. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(11): e2021JD035659. doi: 10.1029/2021JD035659
    Yau A M W, Chang E K M. 2020. Finding storm track activity metrics that are highly correlated with weather impacts. Part I: frameworks for evaluation and accumulated track activity. Journal of Climate, 33(23): 10169–10186. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0393.1
    Yoshida A, Asuma Y. 2004. Structures and environment of explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific region. Monthly Weather Review, 132(5): 1121–1142. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1121:SAEOED>2.0.CO;2
    Zhang Yingxian, Ding Yihui, Li Qiaoping. 2012. Interdecadal variations of extratropical cyclone activities and storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences (in Chinese), 36(5): 912–928.
    Zhang Yunqing, Held I M. 1999. A linear stochastic model of a GCM’s midlatitude storm tracks. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56(19): 3416–3435. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<3416:ALSMOA>2.0.CO;2
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Figures(12)

    Article Metrics

    Article views (157) PDF downloads(5) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return