Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

SONG Mirong; WEI Lixin; WANG Zhenzhan

doi:10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

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SONG Mirong, WEI Lixin, WANG Zhenzhan. Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2016, 35(5): 49-53. doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

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SONG Mirong, WEI Lixin, WANG Zhenzhan. Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2016, 35(5): 49-53. doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

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Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

doi: 10.1007/s13131-016-0854-5

1.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Key Laboratory of Microwave Remote Sensing, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Received Date: 2015-05-20
Rev Recd Date: 2015-07-14

Abstract

Abstract

Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.
- internal variability,
- sea ice decline,
- external forcing

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