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Abstract: The recognition on the trend of wind energy stability is still extremely rare, although it is closely related to acquisition efficiency, grid connection, equipment lifetime, and costs of wind energy utilization. Using the 40-year (1979–2018) ERA-Interim data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study presented the spatial-temporal distribution and climatic trend of the stability of global offshore wind energy as well as the abrupt phenomenon of wind energy stability in key regions over the past 40 years with the climatic analysis method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. The results show the following 5 points. (1) According to the coefficient of variation (Cv) of the wind power density, there are six permanent stable zones of global offshore wind energy: the southeast and northeast trade wind zones in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the Southern Hemisphere westerly, and a semi-permanent stable zone (North Indian Ocean). (2) There are six low-value zones for both seasonal variability index (Sv) and monthly variability index (Mv) globally, with a similar spatial distribution as that of the six permanent stable zones. Mv and Sv in the Arabian Sea are the highest in the world. (3) After Cv, Mv and Sv are comprehensively considered, the six permanent stable zones have an obvious advantage in the stability of wind energy over other sea areas, with Cv below 0.8, Mv within 1.0, and Sv within 0.7 all the year round. (4) The global stability of offshore wind energy shows a positive climatic trend for the past four decades. Cv, Mv and Sv have not changed significantly or decreased in most of the global ocean during 1979 to 2018. That is, wind energy is flat or more stable, while the monthly and seasonal variabilities tend to shrink/smooth, which is beneficial for wind energy utilization. (5) Cv in the low-latitude Pacific and Mv and Sv in both the North Indian Ocean and the low-latitude Pacific have an obvious abrupt phenomenon at the end of the 20th century.
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Key words:
- global oceans /
- wind energy /
- stability /
- spatial-temporal distribution /
- climatic trend
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Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the climatic trend analysis of the stability of global oceanic wind energy.
Figure 2. Multi-year average coefficient of variation of wind power density in MAM (a), JJA (b), SON (c), and DJF (d) for the period 1979–2018.
Figure 3. Coefficient of variation of wind power density for the periods of 1979–1988 (a, b), 1989–1998 (c, d), 1999–2008 (e, f), and 2009–2018 (g, h) in JJA (left) and DJF (right).
Figure 4. Monthly variability index of wind power density for the period 1979–2018 in global oceans.
Figure 5. Monthly variability index of wind power density for the decades 1979–1988 (a), 1989–1998 (b), 1999–2008 (c), and 2009–2018 (d).
Figure 6. Seasonal variability index of wind power density in the global oceans for the period 1979–2018.
Figure 7. Seasonal variability index of wind power density for the decades 1979–1988 (a), 1989–1998 (b), 1999–2008 (c), and 2009–2018 (d).
Figure 8. Long-term trend of the coefficient of variation of wind power density in MAM (a), JJA (b), SON (c), and DJF (d) across the global ocean. Only areas significant at the 0.05 reliability level are colored.
Figure 9. Annual climatic trend of monthly variability index of wind power density in the global oceans. Only areas significant at the 0.05 reliability level are colored.
Figure 10. Annual climatic trend of the seasonal variability index of wind power density in global oceans. Only areas significant at the 0.05 reliability level are colored.
Figure 11. Annual values of the coefficient of variation (a, b), monthly variability index (c, d), seasonal variability index (e, f) of wind power density in the North Indian Ocean (left) and low latitudes of the Pacific Ocean (right).
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