Impact of climate change on potential habitat distribution of Sciaenidae in the coastal waters of China
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Abstract: Climate change has affected and will continue to affect the spatial distribution patterns of marine organisms. To understand the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and species richness of the Sciaenidae in China’s coastal waters, the maximum entropy model was used to combine six environmental factors and predict the potential distribution of 12 major species of Sciaenidae by 2050s under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. The results showed that the average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.917, indicating that the model predictions were accurate and reliable. The main driving factors affecting the potential distribution of these fishes were dissolved oxygen, salinity, and sea surface temperature (SST). There was an overall northward shift in the potential habitat areas of these fishes under the two climate scenarios. The total potential habitat areas of Larimichthys polyactis, Pennahia argentata, and Pennahia pawak decreased under both climate scenarios, while the total habitat area of Johnius belengerii, Pennahia anea, Miichthys miiuy, Collichthys lucidus, and Collichthys niveatus increased, suggesting that these might be loser and winner species, respectively. The expansion rate, contraction rate, degree of centroid change, and species richness in the potential habitats were generally more significant under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. The mean shift rates of the potential distribution were 41.50 km/(10 a) and 29.20 km/(10 a) under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. The changes in Sciaenidae species richness under climate change were bounded by the Changjiang River Estuary waters, with obvious north-south differences. Some waters with increased species richness may become refuges for Sciaenidae fishes under climate change. The richness and habitat area change rate of some aquatic germplasm resources will decrease, meanings that these reserves are more sensitive to climate change, and more attention should be paid to the potential challenges and opportunities for fishery managers. This study may provide a scientific basis for the management and conservation of Sciaenidae in China under climate change.
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Key words:
- climate change /
- Sciaenidae /
- potential distribution /
- species richness /
- habitat
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Figure 1. Study area and occurrence records of 12 Sciaenidae species in the coastal waters of China.
Figure 3. Prediction of current habitat distribution and future habitat distribution for the 2041–2060 period based on the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios.
Figure 4. Changes of potential Sciaenidae habitats under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.
Figure 5. Centroid shift rates of potential Sciaenidae habitats under different future climate change scenarios.
Figure 6. Species richness changes of Sciaenidae under different future climate change scenarios. The black and red framed areas are the Larimichthys polyactis national aquatic germplasm reserves.
Table 1. Details of 12 fish species
Genus Species Survey data (2004−2009) Global data in study area (2004−2009) Larimichthys Larimichthys crocea 183 39 Larimichthys Larimichthys polyactis 401 10 Nibea Nibea albiflora 77 2 Johnius Johnius grypotus 34 2 Johnius Johnius belengerii 182 5 Pennahia Pennahia argentata 201 12 Pennahia Pennahia macrocephalus 95 6 Pennahia Pennahia pawak 76 13 Pennahia Pennahia anea 120 43 Collichthys Collichthys niveatus 35 2 Collichthys Collichthys lucidus 196 11 Miichthys Miichthys miiuy 156 1 
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Table 2. List of environmental variables for the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model
Variable Source (current scenario) Source (future scenarios, 2050s) Unit Initial resolution Sea surface temperature NASA MODIS-Aqua L3 products NASA MODIS-Aqua L3 products, IPSL: https://esgf-node.ipsl.upmc.fr/projects/cmip6-ipsl/ , GFDL:https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ ℃ 1 km Salinity www.bio-oracle.org www.bio-oracle.org, IPSL: https://esgf-node.ipsl. upmc.fr/projects/cmip6-ipsl/ , GFDL:https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ − 10 km Dissolved oxygen www.bio-oracle.org www.bio-oracle.org, IPSL: https://esgf-node.ipsl. upmc.fr/projects/cmip6-ipsl/ , GFDL:https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ mol/m3 10 km Current velocity www.bio-oracle.org www.bio-oracle.org m/s 10 km Bathymetry www.noaa.gov/ https://www.noaa.gov/ m 2 km Distance from land www.globalfishingwatch.com www.globalfishingwatch.com m 1 km
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Table 3. The area under the curve (AUC) values of the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models
Species Mean value of AUC Standard deviation Larimichthys crocea 0.909 0.027 Larimichthys polyactis 0.898 0.012 Johnius grypotus 0.889 0.051 Johnius belengerii 0.894 0.018 Pennahia anea 0.967 0.012 Pennahia argentata 0.860 0.022 Pennahia macrocephalus 0.908 0.026 Pennahia pawak 0.964 0.012 Nibea albiflora 0.882 0.042 Miichthys miiuy 0.950 0.021 Collichthys lucidus 0.922 0.019 Collichthys niveatus 0.964 0.024
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Table 4. Spatial pattern changes in potential Sciaenidae habitats under different future climate change scenarios
Current RCP2.6 scenario The total area/km2 The total area/km2 Rate of change/% Expansion area/km2 Rate of expansion/% Stability area/km2 Contraction area/km2 Rate of contraction/% Larimichthys crocea 152799.37 152344.99 –0.30 17638.58 11.54 134706.41 18092.96 11.84 Larimichthys polyactis 263894.87 281568.34 6.70 31606.44 11.98 249961.90 13932.97 5.28 Johnius grypotus 377112.31 391667.46 3.86 36606.16 9.71 355061.31 22051.01 5.85 Johnius belengerii 249780.74 348187.63 39.40 103448.92 41.42 244738.71 5042.03 2.02 Pennahia anea 66919.24 79876.62 19.36 20773.98 31.04 59102.64 7816.60 11.68 Pennahia argentata 413733.32 401618.63 –2.93 55031.74 13.30 346586.89 67146.43 16.23 Pennahia macrocephalus 215773.19 152440.02 –29.35 10417.43 4.83 142022.59 73750.60 34.18 Pennahia pawak 112929.37 86448.11 –23.45 7571.59 6.70 78876.53 34052.84 30.15 Nibea albiflora 293061.36 275219.02 –6.09 29985.04 10.23 245233.98 47827.38 16.32 Miichthys miiuy 62502.89 97658.16 56.25 40436.52 64.70 57221.64 5281.25 8.45 Collichthys lucidus 205666.85 269987.48 31.27 83678.00 40.69 186309.48 19357.37 9.41 Collichthys niveatus 46941.92 65053.44 38.58 21891.38 46.64 43162.06 3779.85 8.05 Current RCP8.5 scenario The total area/km2 The total area/km2 Rate of change/% Expansion area/km2 Rate of expansion/% Stability area/km2 Contraction area/km2 Rate of contraction/% Larimichthys crocea 152799.37 145773.49 –4.60 25559.12 16.73 120214.37 32585.00 21.33 Larimichthys polyactis 263894.87 253112.89 –4.09 22008.69 8.34 231104.21 32790.66 12.43 Johnius grypotus 377112.31 320600.11 –14.99 8837.48 2.34 311762.63 65349.68 17.33 Johnius belengerii 249780.74 344062.53 37.75 104544.05 41.85 239518.48 10262.26 4.11 Pennahia anea 66919.24 87944.91 31.42 33061.66 49.41 54883.25 12035.99 17.99 Pennahia argentata 413733.32 337727.88 –18.37 63755.62 15.41 273972.25 139761.06 33.78 Pennahia macrocephalus 215773.19 238367.67 10.47 58280.74 27.01 180086.94 35686.25 16.54 Pennahia pawak 112929.37 79443.02 –29.65 19620.20 17.37 59822.82 53106.55 47.03 Nibea albiflora 293061.36 322457.45 10.03 73018.74 24.92 249438.71 43617.82 14.88 Miichthys miiuy 62502.89 90946.36 45.51 41622.47 66.59 49323.89 13179.00 21.09 Collichthys lucidus 205666.85 270594.07 31.57 104380.71 50.75 166213.36 39453.48 19.18 Collichthys niveatus 46941.92 81962.18 74.60 40628.05 86.55 41334.13 5607.79 11.95
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Table 5. Centroid shifts of potential Sciaenidae habitats under different future climate change scenarios
Species Centroid latitude Degree of northward shift Shifts distance/km Shifts rate/(km·(10 a)−1) Current RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 RCP8.5 Larimichthys crocea 24.62°N 25.52°N 26.13°N 0.90° 1.51° 108.59 181.66 24.68 41.29 Larimichthys polyactis 35.80°N 36.18°N 36.40°N 0.39° 0.60° 46.20 72.53 10.50 16.48 Johnius grypotus 33.70°N 34.37°N 34.41°N 0.68° 0.71° 81.07 85.18 18.43 19.36 Johnius belengerii 32.74°N 33.89°N 34.07°N 1.14° 1.33° 137.03 159.36 31.14 36.22 Pennahia anea 22.14°N 22.46°N 23.23°N 0.32° 1.09° 38.07 130.98 8.65 29.77 Pennahia argentata 29.05°N 30.95°N 31.83°N 1.90° 2.78° 227.50 334.06 51.70 75.92 Pennahia macrocephalus 23.51°N 24.73°N 24.87°N 1.22° 1.36° 145.94 163.67 33.17 37.20 Pennahia pawak 21.72°N 22.05°N 22.49°N 0.32° 0.77° 38.63 92.43 8.78 21.01 Nibea albiflora 29.36°N 30.92°N 31.37°N 1.57° 2.02° 187.92 241.98 42.71 55.00 Miichthys miiuy 31.99°N 33.50°N 34.01°N 1.50° 0.51° 180.52 242.00 41.03 55.00 Collichthys lucidus 29.77°N 32.32°N 33.27°N 2.54° 3.49° 305.25 419.08 69.38 95.25 Collichthys niveatus 34.39°N 34.77°N 34.96°N 0.37° 0.57° 44.96 68.30 10.22 15.52 Mean 1.07° 1.40° 128.47 182.60 29.20 41.50
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Table 6. Changes in marine-type aquatic germplasm reserves of the Sciaenidae under climate scenarios
Name Current RCP2.6 scenario RCP8.5 scenario Richness of Sciaenidae Richness of Sciaenidae Shared species Mean change rate of habitat area/% Richness of Sciaenidae Shared species Mean change rate of habitat area/% 1 8 8 8 12.4 8 8 14.5 2 5 7 5 28.6 7 5 28.6 3 2 4 2 50.0 3 2 33.3 4 8 8 8 –7.8 8 8 –3.6 5 9 7 7 –28.8 7 7 –31.9 6 9 9 9 22.0 11 9 92.6 7 5 7 5 28.6 7 5 28.6 8 7 7 7 17.1 7 7 10.4 9 8 8 8 –6.6 9 7 –11.1 10 4 4 4 12.5 4 4 137.5 11 3 5 3 55.0 4 3 43.8 12 6 6 6 75.9 6 6 6.7 13 5 7 5 443.0 7 5 251.4 14 8 8 8 –8.8 7 7 –14.3 15 6 7 6 341.7 7 6 341.7 16 4 6 4 35.1 6 4 35.1 Note: 1: Ningde Guanjing Yellow Croaker Breeding National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 2: Haizhou Bay Razor Clam National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 3: Changdao Abalone and Sea Urchin National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 4: Jiangjia Shazhu Snail National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 5: Shangxiachuan Island Chinese Lobster National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 6: Donghai Largehead Hairtail National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 7: Qiansan Island National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 8: Lüsi Fishing Grounds Little Yellow Croaker and Butterfish National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 9: Xiangshan Japanese Spanish Mackerel National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 10: Changdao Scorpionfish National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 11: Qianliyan National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 12: Haizhou Bay Chinese Prawn Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 13: Liaodong Bohai Bay Laizhou Bay National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 14: Rudong Razor Clam/Surf Clam National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 15: Rizhao Chinese Prawn National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve; 16: Shanhaiguan Coastal Area National Aquatic Germplasm Reserve.
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