Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study

YANG Qinghua; LIU Jiping; ZHANG Zhanhai; SUI Cuijuan; XING Jianyong; LI Ming; LI Chunhua; ZHAO Jiechen; ZHANG Lin

doi:10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7

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Article Navigation > Acta Oceanologica Sinica > 2014 > 33(12): 15-23

YANG Qinghua, LIU Jiping, ZHANG Zhanhai, SUI Cuijuan, XING Jianyong, LI Ming, LI Chunhua, ZHAO Jiechen, ZHANG Lin. Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2014, 33(12): 15-23. doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7

Citation:

YANG Qinghua, LIU Jiping, ZHANG Zhanhai, SUI Cuijuan, XING Jianyong, LI Ming, LI Chunhua, ZHAO Jiechen, ZHANG Lin. Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2014, 33(12): 15-23. doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7

Citation:

YANG Qinghua, LIU Jiping, ZHANG Zhanhai, SUI Cuijuan, XING Jianyong, LI Ming, LI Chunhua, ZHAO Jiechen, ZHANG Lin. Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 2014, 33(12): 15-23. doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7

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Sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice concentration forecasts to different atmospheric forcing: a case study

doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0566-7

1.
Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3.
Key Laboratory for Polar Science of State Oceanic Administration, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China
4.
Polar Environmental Research and Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China

Funds: The Ocean Public Welfare Project of China under contract No. 201205007; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41176169, 41376005, 41376188 and 41106165.

Received Date: 2014-02-09
Rev Recd Date: 2014-08-08

Abstract

Abstract

A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) is used as the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean at the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China (NMEFC), and the numerical weather prediction from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GFS) is used as the atmospheric forcing. To improve the sea ice forecasting, a recently developed Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) model prediction is also tested as the atmospheric forcing. Their forecasting performances are evaluated with two different satellite-derived sea ice concentration products as initializations: (1) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) and (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E). Three synoptic cases, which represent the typical atmospheric circulations over the Arctic Ocean in summer 2010, are selected to carry out the Arctic sea ice numerical forecasting experiments. The evaluations suggest that the forecasts of sea ice concentrations using the Polar WRF atmospheric forcing show some improvements as compared with that of the NCEP GFS.
- Arctic Ocean

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