A hindcast of the Bohai Bay oil spill during June to August 2011

YANG Yiqiu; LI Yan; LIU Guimei; PAN Qingqing; WANG Zhaoyi

doi:10.1007/s13131-017-1135-7

2011年6月-8月渤海湾溢油事故长期后报数值模拟

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1135-7

海洋环境预报室, 国家海洋环境预报中心, 国家海洋局, 北京, 100081

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- 收稿日期: 2016-12-21
- 修回日期: 2017-06-20

A hindcast of the Bohai Bay oil spill during June to August 2011

Marine Environmental Forecasting Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 三维业务化溢油应急预报系统不仅能提供逐时的海洋环境信息预报和溢油漂移扩散，还能对溢油事件进行后报数值模拟。2011年6月4日在渤海湾蓬莱19-3B采油平台发生溢油事件，同月17日19-3C平台也发生溢油事件。此次溢油事故造成了数千平方公里海水受污染。本文采用国家海洋环境预报中心自主研发的溢油模型对蓬莱19-3溢油事件进行长期后报数值模拟，在风流海洋环境场的驱动下，模拟了2016年6月到2016年8月，两个平台溢油的漂移扩散情况、影响范围，靠岸时间和影响岸段等。风场采用基于WRF模型模拟得到的再分析风场，并用实测风对再分析风场进行订正，流场采用基于POM模式在再分析风场驱动下得到的海流。后报结果显示，溢油主要向西北方向漂移，并最终靠岸，其扫过的海域也主要在平台的西北方向，这与观测结果一致，验证了后报的可靠性。
- 溢油 /
- 后报 /
- 拉格朗日随机游走 /
- 溢油分布 /
- 扫海面积
Abstract: An operational three-dimensional oil spill model is developed by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), State Oceanic Administration, China, and the model has been running for 9 a. On June 4 and 17, 2011, oil is spilled into the sea water from two separate oil platforms in the Bohai Bay, i.e., Platforms B and C of Penglai 19-3 oilfield. The spill causes pollution of thousands of square kilometres of sea area. The NMEFC's oil spill model is employed to study the Penglai 19-3 oil-spill pollution during June to August 2011. The wind final analysis data of the NMEFC, which is based on a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, are analyzed and corrected by comparing with the observation data. A corrected current filed is obtained by forcing the princeton ocean model (POM) with the corrected wind field. With the above marine environmental field forcing the oil spill model, the oil mass balance and oil distribution can be produced. The simulation is validated against the observation, and it is concluded that the oil spill model of the NMEFC is able to commendably simulate the oil spill distribution. Thus the NMEFC's oil spill model can provide a tool in an environmental impact assessment after the event.
- oil spill /
- hindcast /
- Lagrangian random walk /
- oil distribution /
- swept area

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参考文献(19)

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文章访问数: 1160
HTML全文浏览量: 90
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2011年6月-8月渤海湾溢油事故长期后报数值模拟

doi: 10.1007/s13131-017-1135-7

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A hindcast of the Bohai Bay oil spill during June to August 2011

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