Succession of causative species during spring blooms in the East China Sea: coupled biophysical numerical modeling
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摘要: 在我国东海,每年春季经常发生赤潮优势种由硅藻向甲藻的演替现象,且在2005年,遥感以及现场调查的数据均捕捉到了这一现象。本研究将此前分别针对中肋骨条藻和东海原甲藻建立的种群生长模型与东海环流模型相耦合,以此模型来后报2005年的赤潮过程,并在此过程中验证“磷酸盐是导致演替的关键因子”这一此前研究所提出的假设。结果表明,该耦合模型能够成功再现该研究海域的水动力、叶绿素浓度的空间分布,以及赤潮优势种的演替过程。通过分析各因子对表层叶绿素分布的影响,我们证实了赤潮分布的离岸边界由磷酸盐控制。而且,表层风场在调控赤潮的水平分布中起到重要的作用,其与磷酸盐一起控制着赤潮的消散,并进而导致了优势种的演替现象。这一耦合模型还需要进一步完善,包括引入更多种类的有机体、营养盐组分和过程。Abstract: In the East China Sea (ECS), the succession of causative species responsible for blooms is a recurrent phenomenon during the spring, which changes from diatoms to dinoflagellates. Observations from space and in situ cruises captured this pattern of succession during spring of 2005. In this study, we coupled two biological models, which were developed previously for Skeletonema costatum and Prorocentrum donghaiense, into a circulation model tailored for the ECS. The coupled biophysical model was used to hindcast the blooms and to test the hypothesis proposed in earlier studies that phosphate (PO43-) is the first-order decider of the succession. The coupled model successfully reproduced the hydrodynamics (as described in a companion paper by Sun et al.①, the spatiotemporal distribution of the chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration, and the species succession reasonably well. By analyzing the effects of different factors on the surface Chl a distribution, we confirmed that the offshore boundaries of the blooms were confined by PO43-. In addition, we suggest that surface wind fields may modulate the horizontal distribution of blooms. Thus, during the dispersal of blooms, surface winds coupled with PO43- may control the succession of blooms in the ECS. The proposed coupled model provides a benchmark to facilitate future improvements by including more size classes for organisms, multiple nutrient schemes, and additional processes.
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