The effect of sea surface temperature increase on the potential habitat of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
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摘要: 在西北太平洋,自上世纪70年度以来,中国、日本、其他国家和地区的鱿钓船每年的8-11月主要捕捞柔鱼的西部冬春生群体。柔鱼为1年生的短生命种类,其种群数量易变,资源补充量受到环境或气候变化的影响。本研究根据1998-2004年8-11月中国鱿钓船的柔鱼生产统计数据以及遥感获得表温数据,利用频度分析法获得柔鱼最高日产量CPUE的水温范围以及各月潜在栖息地。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)提出的第四次评估报告(AR4)中提出的表温上升0.5, 1, 2和4℃等四个情形,来预测柔鱼潜在栖息地的变化。研究认为,随着表温的上升,西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地有明显向北极移动的现象。Abstract: In the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the squid jigging fisheries from China, Japan and other countries and regions have targeted the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) from August to November since the 1970s. This squid is a short-lived ecological opportunist with a life-span of about one year, and its population is labile and recruitment variability is driven by the environment or climate change. This variability provides a challenge for ones to forecast the key habitats affected by climate change. The catch data of O. bartramii from Chinese squid jigging fishery and the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data are used in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from August to November of 1998 to 2004, the SST preferences of O. bartramii corresponding to high values of catch per fishing day (CPUE) are determined and monthly potential habitats are predicted using a histogram analysis of the SST data. The possible changes in the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are estimated under four climate change scenarios based on the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, i.e., 0.5, 1, 2 and 4℃ increases in the SST because of the climate change. The results reveal an obvious poleward shift of the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.
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