Simulation of Typhoon Muifa using a mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean model

SUN Minghua; DUAN Yihong; ZHU Jianrong; WU Hui; ZHANG Jin; HUANG Wei

doi:10.1007/s13131-014-0561-z

中尺度海气耦合模式对台风“梅花”的预报试验

doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0561-z

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Estuary and Coastal, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
4.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
5.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China

计量
- 文章访问数: 1700
- HTML全文浏览量: 78
- PDF下载量: 1579
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-03-25
- 修回日期: 2013-10-23

Simulation of Typhoon Muifa using a mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean model

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Estuary and Coastal, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
4.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China
5.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China

摘要

摘要: 本文基于GRAPES区域台风模式和ECOM_si河口海洋模式, 在耦合器OASIS3的框架下构建了一个西北太平洋区域海气耦合模式。海洋模式和大气模式交换海表面温度、海面风应力、热通量以及水汽通量。使用海气耦合模式和台风模式分别对1109号台风“梅花”的全过程进行了数值预报试验。为了考察使用更准确的SST信息对于台风梅花的路径和强度模拟的影响, 还开展了在控制试验初始场中提升SST分辨率的试验。结果表明, 在控制试验初始场中提升SST分辨率总体上对“梅花”台风强度预报略有改善, 而海气耦合模式对“梅花”台风的强度预报有明显改善, 48小时最大风速平均绝对误差减少了约32%, 72小时最大风速平均绝对误差减少了约20%。使用海气耦合模式改善了GRAPES区域台风模式在“梅花”强度预报上整体偏强的趋势。此外, 在“梅花”发展的不同阶段, 由于经过海洋的混合层深度不同, 海气耦合模式对其强度的影响程度不同, 相比于生成前期, 后期影响更为显著。耦合模式预报出台风经过洋面海表面温度最大降温约5－6℃, 其位置和幅度与卫星资料分析比较接近。对耦合模式和控制模式预报的海表面热通量、热带气旋潜热以及边界层湿静力能、大气中温度和降水等要素进行分析, 显示出该海气耦合模式的计算结果能够合理地反映出台风与海洋相互作用的主要机制。
- 海气耦合模式 /
- GRAPES /
- ECOM-si /
- 台风强度 /
- 海表面温度
Abstract: A mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean model has been developed based on the GRAPES (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) regional typhoon model (GRAPES_TYM) and ECOM-si (estuary, coast and ocean model (semi-implicit)). Coupling between the typhoon and ocean models was conducted by exchanging wind stress, heat, moisture fluxes, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using the coupler OASIS3.0. Numerical prediction experiments were run with and without coupling for the case of Typhoon Muifa in the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of using more accurate SST information on the simulation of the track and the intensity of Typhoon Muifa, experiments were also conducted using increased SST resolution in the initial condition field of the control test. The results indicate that increasing SST resolution in the initial condition field somewhat improved the intensity forecast, and use of the coupled model improved the intensity forecast significantly, with mean absolute errors in maximum wind speed within 48 and 72 h reduced by 32% and 20%, respectively. Use of the coupled model also resulted in less pronounced over-prediction of the intensity of Typhoon Muifa by the GRAPES_TYM. Moreover, the effects of using the coupled model on the intensity varied throughout the different stages of the development of Muifa owing to changes in the oceanic mixed layer depth. The coupled model had pronounced effects during the later stage of Muifa but had no obvious effects during the earlier stage. The SSTs predicted by the coupled model decreased by about 5-6℃ at most after the typhoon passed, in agreement with satellite data. Furthermore, based on analysis on the sea surface heat flux, wet static energy of the boundary layer, atmospheric temperature, and precipitation forecasted by the coupled model and the control test, the simulation results of this coupled atmosphere-ocean model can be considered to reasonably reflect the primary mechanisms underlying the interactions between tropical cyclones and oceans.
- coupled atmosphere-ocean model /
- GRAPES /
- ECOM-si /
- TC intensity /
- SST

HTML全文

参考文献(33)

Bender M A, Ginis I, Kurihara Y. 1993. Numerical simulations of the tropical cyclone-ocean interaction with a high-resolution coupled model. J Geophys Res, 98(D12): 23245-23263

Bender M A, Ginis I. 2000. Real-case simulations of hurricane-ocean interaction using a high-resolution coupled models: Effects on hurricane intensity. Mon Wea Rev, 128(4): 917-946

Bender M A, Ginis I, Tuleya R, et al. 2007. The Operational GFDL coupled hurricane-Ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Mon Wea Rev, 135(12): 3965-3989

Black P G. 1983. Ocean temperature changes induced by tropical cyclones [dissertation]. Pennsylvania: The Pennsylvania State University, 278

Blumberg A F, Mellor G L. 1987. A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model. In: Heaps N S, ed. Three-Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union, 1-16

Blumberg A F. 1994. A primer for ECOM-si. Mahwah, NJ: Technical Report of Hydroqua, Inc

Chan J C L, Duan Y H, Shay L K. 2001. Tropical cyclone intensity change from a simple ocean-atmosphere coupled model. J Atmos Sci, 58(2): 154-172

Chen C, Zhu J, Ralph E, et al. 2001. Prognostic modeling studies of the Keweenaw Current in Lake Superior, Part I: Formation and evolution. J Phys Oceanogr, 31(2): 379-395

Chen S S, Zhao W, Mark A, et al. 2007. The CBLAST-Hurricane program and the Next-Generation fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models for hurricane research and prediction. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 88(3): 311-317

Chang S W, Madala R V. 1980. Numerical simulation of the influence of sea surface temperature on translating tropical cyclones. J Atmos Sci, 37(12): 2617-2630

Emanuel K A. 1986. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: Steady-state maintenance. J Atmos Sci, 43(6): 585-604

Emanuel K A.1999. Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature, 401(6754): 665-669

Galperin B, Kantha L H, Hassid S, et al. 1988. A quasi-equilibrium turbulent energy model for geophysical flows. J Atmos Sci, 45(1): 55-62

Ginis I, Shen W, Bender M A. 1999. Performance evaluation of the GFDL coupled hurricane ocean prediction system in the Atlantic basin. Preprints, 23d Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Dallas, TX: Amer Meteor Soc, 607-610

Ginis I. 2002. Tropical cyclone-ocean interactions. In: Perrie W, ed. Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions. Wessex Institute of Technology Press, 33: 83-114

Kurihara Y, Bender M A, Ross R J. 1993. An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon Wea Rev, 121(7): 2030-2045

Kurihara Y, Bender M A, Tuleya R E, et al. 1995. Improvements in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon Wea Rev, 123(9): 2791-2801

Mellor G L, Yamada T. 1982. Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problem. Rev Geophys, 20(4): 851-875

Moon I J, Hara T, Ginis I, et al. 2007. A physics-based parameterization of air-sea momentum flux at high wind speeds and its impact on hurricane intensity predictions. Mon Wea Rev, 135(8): 2869-2878

Price J F. 1981. Upper ocean response to a hurricane. J Phys Oceanogr, 11(2): 153-175

Shade L R, Emanuel K A. 1999. The ocean's effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: Results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J Atmos Sci, 56(4): 642-651

Shay L K, Goni G J, Black P G. 2000. Effect of a warm oceanic feature on hurricane Opal. Mon Wea Rev, 128(5): 1366-1383

Shen Qi, Zhu Jianrong, Duan Yihong, et al. 2010. Simulation of circulation and sea temperature in the Northwest Pacific. Journal of East China Normal University (Nature Science Edition) (in Chinese), (6): 26-35

Shen Qi, Zhu Jianrong, Duan Yihong, et al. 2012. Numerical simulation of ocean circulation and temperature in the Northwest Pacific using a vertical S-coordinate model. Journal of Tropical Oceanography (in Chinese), 31(6): 20-28

Valcke S. 2006. OASIS3 User Guide (prism_2-5). Technical Report TR/CMGC/06/73, CERFACS, Toulouse, France

Valcke S. 2013. The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software, Geosci. Model Dev, 6: 373-388, doi: 10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013

Wada A. 2007. Numerical problems associated with tropical cyclone intensity prediction using a sophisticated coupled typhoon-ocean model. Pap Met Geophys, 58: 103-126

Wang Y. 1995. On an inverse balance equation in sigma-coordinates for model initialization. Mon Wea Rev, 123(2): 482-488

Wang Ziqian, Duan Anmin, Zheng Yongjun, et al. 2012. Simulative study of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) using the mesoscale coupled air-sea model GRAPES_OMLM. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 70(2): 261-274

Wu H, Zhu J R. 2010. Advection scheme with 3rd high-order spatial interpolation at the middle temporal level and its application to saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary Advection scheme with 3rd high-order spatial interpolation at the middle temporal level and its application to saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang Estuary. Ocean Modelling, 33(1-2): 31-51

Xu Yinglong, Han Guirong, Ma Hongsu, et al. 2011. The analysis and discussion on operational forecast of super typhoon Muifa (1109). Meteorological Monthly (in Chinese), 37(10): 1196ese)o

Xue Jishan, Chen Dehui. 2008. Scientific Design and Application of the Numerical Prediction System GRAPES (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press

Zhu Jianrong, Zhu Shouxian. 2003. Improvement of the ECOM with application to the Changjiang River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay and adjacent waters. Oceanologia et Liminologia Sinica (in Chinese), 34(4): 364-374

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计

点击查看大图

计量

文章访问数: 1700
HTML全文浏览量: 78
PDF下载量: 1579
被引次数: 0

中尺度海气耦合模式对台风“梅花”的预报试验

doi: 10.1007/s13131-014-0561-z

计量

出版历程

Simulation of Typhoon Muifa using a mesoscale coupled atmosphere-ocean model

计量

出版历程

目录