Long-term trend of oceanic surface carbon in the Northwest Pacific from 1958 to 2017

Xuanliang Ji Fei Chai Peng Xiu Guimei Liu

Xuanliang Ji, Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Guimei Liu. Long-term trend of oceanic surface carbon in the Northwest Pacific from 1958 to 2017[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1953-5
Citation: Xuanliang Ji, Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Guimei Liu. Long-term trend of oceanic surface carbon in the Northwest Pacific from 1958 to 2017[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1953-5

doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1953-5

Long-term trend of oceanic surface carbon in the Northwest Pacific from 1958 to 2017

Funds: The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract No. 2016YFC1401605); Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) under contract No. SML2020SP008; the Open Fund of Marine Telemetry Technology Innovation Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources; the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 41730536.
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  • Figure  1.  Areas used for temporal analysis: a. modeled annual-mean temperature (°C), and b. modeled annual-mean oceanic surface pCO2 (μatm, 1 μatm=0.101 Pa).

    Figure  2.  Atmospheric CO2 set in Case 1 and Case 2. Black line: Case 1; Red line: Case 2. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.

    Figure  3.  Comparison the model simulations and satellite observations. a. Sea surface temperature (SST), black line is modeled results, red line is satellite results. b. Oceanic surface pCO2, black curve line is modeled results, green dot is observed results. Black line is the variation trend line from model, green line is the variation trend line from observation. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.

    Figure  4.  Decades variation of oceanic surface pCO2­. Modeled oceanic surface pCO2 (top), and observations of pCO2 from the SOCAT database (bottom). a, e: 1990s decade; b, f: 2000s decade; c, g: 2010s decade. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.

    Figure  5.  Seasonal climatology of oceanic surface pCO2 from model. a. Winter (DJF, December–February); b. spring (MAM, March–May); c. summer (JJA, June–August); d. autumn (SON, September–November). 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.

    Figure  6.  Spatial distributions of long-term trend rate of change. a. for SST, b. for TCO2 under Case 1, c. for oceanic surface pCO2 under Case 1, d. for TCO2 under Case 2, and e. for oceanic surface pCO2 under Case 2, 1 μatm=0.101 Pa).

    Figure  7.  Spatial distributions of the long-term trend rate of change. a. for pCO2, b. for pCO2-SST (same distribution under Case 1 and Case 2), c. for pCO2-TCO2 under Case 1, and d. for pCO2-TCO2 under Case 2. 1μatm=0.101 Pa.

    Table  1.   Statistical indicators of model skill for SST and oceanic surface ocean pCO2 in northwestern Pacific Ocean box region

    VariableMECFPBBiasCorRMSDN
    SST/°C0.860.338.961.220.990.587164288
    pCO2/μatm0.130.743.5011.810.8021.8729849
    Note: Total bias, correlation coefficient (Cor), RMSD and total number of effective observations (N) are also shown. ME, model efficiency; CF, cost function; PB, percentage of bias. Bold values indicate “Good” model skill. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  2.   Long-term trend rates of change in SST, TCO2, and pCO2 in the WBS, WSA and KOM in winter and summer under Case 1 and Case 2

    RegionsseasonsSST
    /(°C·a–1)
    TCO2
    /(mmol·m–3·a–1)
    pCO2
    /(uatm·a–1)
    Case 1/Case 2Case 1Case 2Case 1Case 2
    WBSwinter0.006±0.003–0.19±0.070.37±0.09–0.23±0.090.97±0.13
    summer0.010±0.003–0.03±0.130.62±0.110.10±0.301.36±0.25
    WSAwinter–0.020±0.0100.24±0.120.92±0.130.10±0.071.29±0.12
    summer0.25±0.131.01±0.120.35±0.221.68±0.32
    KOMwinter0.005±0.006–0.05±0.060.70±0.071.12±0.03
    summer–0.05±0.080.80±0.091.38±0.09
    Note: The ± values are the standard deviations about the regional mean. — indicates no significant trend. For SST, no significant trend rate value is lower than 0.005 °C/a. For pCO2, it is lower than 0.1 μatm/a. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  3.   The trend rate of δpCO2 in WBS, WSA and KOM three boxes during the period from 1958 to 2017 under experimental Case 2

    RegionSeason$\text{δ} $pCO2/(μatm·a–1)
    WBSwinter–0.57±0.13
    summer–0.18±0.25
    WSAwinter–0.24±0.12
    summer0.15±0.32
    KOMwinter–0.42±0.03
    summer–0.15±0.9
    Note: The ± values are the standard deviations about the regional mean.1 μatm=0.101 Pa.
    下载: 导出CSV

    Table  4.   Trend rates of pCO2 under SST and TCO2 influences in the WBS, WSA and KOM in winter and summer under Case 1 and Case 2

    RegionseasonpCO2-SST/(μatm·a–1)pCO2-TCO2/(μatm·a–1)
    Case 1/Case 2Case 1Case 2
    WBSwinter–0.27±0.100.58±0.13
    summer0.14±0.051.01±0.15
    WSAwinter–0.22±0.130.32±0.161.30±0.18
    summer0.35±0.81.55±0.21
    KOMwinter1.00±0.10
    summer1.39±0.18
    Note: The ± values in the table are the standard deviations about the regional mean. — indicates no significant trend, whose value is lower than 0.1 μatm/a. 1 μatm=0.101 Pa.
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-05-24
  • 录用日期:  2021-07-08
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-16

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