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Abstract: The sea ice conditions in the Kara Sea have important impacts on Arctic shipping, oil and gas production, and marine environmental changes. In this study, sea ice coverage (CR) less than 30% is considered as open water, its onset and end dates are defined as Topen and Tclose, respectively. The sea ice melt onset (Tmelt) is defined as the date when ice-sea freshwater flux initially changes from ice into the ocean. Satellite-based sea ice concentration (SIC) from 1989 to 2019 shows a negative correlation between Topen and Tclose (r = –0.77, p < 0.01) in the Kara Sea. This phenomenon is also obtained through analyzing the hindcast simulation from 1994 to 2015 by a coupled ocean and sea-ice model (NAPA1/4). The model results reveal that thermodynamics dominate the sea ice variations, and ice basal melt is greater than the ice surface melt. Heat budget estimation suggests that the heat flux is significant correlated with Topen (r = –0.95, p < 0.01) during the melt period (the duration of multi-year averaged Tmelt to Topen) influenced by the sea ice conditions. Additionally, this heat flux is also suggested to dominate the interannual variation of the heat input during the whole heat absorption process (r = 0.81, p < 0.01). The more heat input during this process leads to later Tclose (r = 0.77, p < 0.01). This is the physical basis of the negative correlation between Topen and Tclose. Therefore, the duration of open water can be predicted by Topen and thence support earlier planning of marine activities.
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Key words:
- sea ice /
- open water onset /
- duration of open water /
- heat budget /
- Kara Sea
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Figure 1. Location and bathymetry of the Kara Sea (the topography data came from the ORCA025 developed for the DRAKKAR project,
https://www.drakkar-ocean.eu/global-models/orca025 ). The study region is bounded by three sections (thick black lines), Kara Gate (KG), Novaya Zemlya-Taymyr Peninsula (NT), Estuaries of Ob and Yenisei (ES).
Figure 2. Spatial distributions of sea ice concentration from May to October from the CDR data set (a–f) and simulation results of NAPA1/4 (g–l), averaged over 1994–2015 in the Kara Sea; and the Taylor diagram showing normalized standard deviations (distant from the origin), correlations (azimuth angle), and bias removed RMS differences (Euclidian distance from the reference point) between NAPA 1/4 and the CDR data set (m). The reference point (blue star) applies to all satellite observed values. The red dots represent 5 d averaged time series in each year from 1994 to 2015.
Figure 3. Variations in CR based on the climate data record (CDR) data set (a) and NAPA1/4 model (b). The black and red lines in both subfigures denote the Topen (solid) and Tclose (dashed), respectively. The blue lines represent the linear trend of Topen and Tclose based on the CDR.
Figure 4. Annual cycle of sea ice growth and decay rate of ice thickness averaged over 1994–2015 based on NAPA1/4. The negative (positive) value indicates the sea ice decay (growth) rate. Lines with the red circle, blue dot and black triangle represent the thermodynamic, dynamic process and the total contributions to ice variation, respectively.
Figure 5. Annual cycle average of the sea ice surface melting rate (blue dot), basal melting rate (red circle), and freshwater flux from ice to the ocean (black triangle) in the Kara Sea averaged over 1994–2015 (a); and melting rates from May 3rd to June 2nd (box outlined in gray in a) (b). These variables are calculated from NAPA1/4 (see the guide book available at
http://www.climate.be/users/lecomte/LIM3_users_guide_2012.pdf ). The negative (positive) value indicates the sea ice melting (formation) rate.
Figure 6. Annual cycles of regional mean sea surface temperature (black dot), the lateral (blue triangle) and vertical (red dot) net heat flux averaged over 1994–2015 based on NAPA1/4. Positive (negative) values denote heat absorption (release).
Figure 7. Interannual variations in sea ice concentration (blue triangle), Topen (black dot), and accumulated heat flux during the melt period (red dot) based on NAPA1/4 in the Kara Sea.
Figure 8. Interannual variations in Tclose (black circle), accumulated heat flux during the melt period (red dot), the open water period (blue triangle) and the heat absorption process (magenta triangle) based on NAPA1/4 in the Kara Sea.
Figure 9. Relationship between Topen (black dot) and duration of open water (DOW) of the Kara Sea derived from the CDR data set. a. Scatter diagram of DOW versus Topen, with their linear regression shown by the red line and 95% confidence bounds shown by the black lines. The sizes of open circles increase from 1989 to 2019. b. Detrended time series from 1989 to 2019. The red triangle and blue circle lines denote CDR derived DOW (DOWobs) and predicted DOW (DOWpre), respectively.
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