Analysis of the inter-annual variability and southward expansion of red tides in Zhejiang coastal waters from 1981 to 2018

Lili Xu Yinyu Liang Wenjun Xiao Bingrui Chen

Lili Xu, Yinyu Liang, Wenjun Xiao, Bingrui Chen. Analysis of the inter-annual variability and southward expansion of red tides in Zhejiang coastal waters from 1981 to 2018[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1741-2
Citation: Lili Xu, Yinyu Liang, Wenjun Xiao, Bingrui Chen. Analysis of the inter-annual variability and southward expansion of red tides in Zhejiang coastal waters from 1981 to 2018[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1741-2

doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1741-2

Analysis of the inter-annual variability and southward expansion of red tides in Zhejiang coastal waters from 1981 to 2018

Funds: The National Basic Research Program of China under contract No. 2016YFC1401900; Open Research Funds of Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Monitoring and Restoration Technologies under contract No. MATHAB201703.
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  • Figure  1.  Annual number and area of red tide events in Zhejiang coastal waters from 1981 to 2018.

    Figure  2.  Red tide distribution in the Zhejiang Sea area over the past 39 years.

    Figure  3.  Red tide occurrence frequency in each decade in coastal cities of Zhejiang Province.

    Figure  4.  Relationship between the annual occurrence of red tide and the SSTA

    Figure  5.  Comparison of simulated and actual values of the nonlinear regression equation

    Figure  6.  Analysis of the mechanism of the southward expansion of red tide

    Table  1.   List of the main impact factors that are closely related to the long-term change of red tide

    Data categoryData record elementsData cycleDomain or stationSpecifications or technical standardsNotes on information
    Red tide eventsTime, location, maximum area, dominant species1981–2015Zhejiang coastal watersTechnical specifications for red tide monitoring(HY/T069—2005)Dataset from 1981 to 2006 is reorganized by the Zhejiang Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Center, and dataset from 2007 to 2015 is provided by the Zhejiang Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Center.
    2016–2018Monitoring data of 2016–2018 is provided by East China Sea Monitoring Center.
    Marine hydrometeorologySST1981–2018Shengshan and Nanji stationsSpecification for coastal observation (GBT14914–2006)Daily operational observation data from 1981 to 2018 provided by the East China Sea Forecast Center.
    SSTASea surface temperature anomaly
    SSTA10a10–year average SSTA
    ENSO indexNiño3.4 areaMonthly mean SSTA in Niño3.4 areaNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (https://www.cpc.noaa.gov)
    Marine water environmentProportion of class IV to classes less than IV2000–2018Zhejiang coastal watersSea water quality standard (GB3097–1997)Zhejiang Marine Environmental Bulletin issued by the Department of Ecology and Environment of Zhejiang Province (http://sthjt.zj.gov.cn.)
    Indicators of socio-economic developmentGross domestic product (GDP)1981–2018Zhejiang ProvinceAdded-value index of primary, secondary and tertiary industriesStatistical Yearbook of China issued by the State Statistical Bureau (http://data.stats.gov.cn.)
    Ningbo CityTable 3–2 GDP development index over the years2019 Ningbo Statistical Yearbook issued by the Ningbo Municipal Statistics Bureau (http://vod.ningbo.gov.cn/)
    Wenzhou CityTable 1–10 GDP development index over the years2019 Wenzhou Statistical Yearbook issued by the Wenzhou Municipal statistics bureau (http://wztjj.wenzhou.gov.cn.)
    Maricultural area1981–2016Zhejiang ProvinceTotal maricultural area for agricultureStatistical Yearbook of China issued by the State Statistical Bureau (http://data.stats.gov.cn.)
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    Table  2.   Nonparametric test statistics of the normal distributions of red tide occurrence and factors

    FactorShapiro-WilkSkewnessKurtosis
    StatisticsFreedomSignificanceStatisticsStatistics
    YAORT0.8353801.341.215
    XSST0.957380.147*0.365–0.344
    XNino3.40.985380.881*0.257–0.339
    Xmar0.923360.015*0.3–1.416
    Xwq0.96190.572*0.577–0.264
    Xpri0.886380.0010.674–0.838
    Xsec0.8143800.924–0.633
    Xter0.7633801.441.051
    Note: * When the significance is >0.05, the factor exhibits normal or partially normal distributions.
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    Table  3.   Rank correlation coefficient of red tide occurrence and factors

    Variable code(YAORT) 7SSTNourishmentWater Quality
    XSSTXNiño3.4XmarXpriXsecXterXwq
    1823456
    YAORTCorrelation coefficient1.326*0.107.743**.394*.696**.461*0.22
    Sig (two-sided).0.0460.52400.016000.366
    N3838383637373719
    Note: * When the confidence coefficient (two-sided test) is 0.05, the correlation is significant; ** when the confidence coefficient (two-sided test) is 0.01, the correlation is significant.
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    Table  4.   ANOVA of the multivariate nonlinear regression equation

    ANOVA
    SourceSum of squaresDegrees of freedomMean square
    Regression26 504.63392 944.959
    Residual1 410.3672654.245
    Total before correction27 91535
    Total after correction15 127.54334
    Note: R2=1–(residual sum of squares)/(corrected sum of squares) = 0.907
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-09-23
  • 录用日期:  2020-10-08
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-07-06

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