The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios

Donglin Guo Rui Li Peng Zhao

Donglin Guo, Rui Li, Peng Zhao. The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1703-8
Citation: Donglin Guo, Rui Li, Peng Zhao. The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica. doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1703-8

doi: 10.1007/s13131-021-1703-8

The long-term trend of Bohai Sea ice in different emission scenarios

Funds: The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No. 2019YFC1408403; the Outstanding Young Talents Funding Project of the Cultivation Project for High-level-innovation Talents in Science and Technology, Ministry of Natural Resources, under contract No. 12110600000018003923.
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  • Figure  1.  Topography in the model domain. The edge of the domain is marked by the red lines. The blue lines indicate major rivers in this region, and the blue triangles indicate locations of buoys where sea surface temperature is measured.

    Figure  2.  Changes of wintertime (November to March) averaged 2-m specific humidity (a), precipitation (b), surface downward longwave radiation (c), surface downward shortwave radiation (d), 2-m air temperature (e), and 10-m wind in the zonal (f) and meridional (g) directions above the Bohai Sea in different CO2 emission scenarios compared to the winter of 2012–2013.

    Figure  3.  True color images from MODIS (background image) and contours of sea ice concentration (solid colorful lines) from the control experiment. The dashed lines indicate sea ice extent subjectively derived from the satellite images.

    Figure  4.  Area of sea surface occupied by sea ice with a concentration of more than 10% from the control run (x axis) and remote sensing (y axis) in the Bohai Sea (BH, a), the Bohai Bay (BHB, b), the Laizhou Bay (LZB, c) and the Liaodong Bay (LDB, d). The correlation (r) coefficient and corresponding p-value are indicated at the upper-left corner of each panel.

    Figure  5.  The date of first ice, maximum sea ice extent and last ice in different CO2 emission scenarios derived from sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a. The dashed horizontal lines indicate the corresponding values in the control experiment for the winter of 2012–2013.

    Figure  6.  The area of max sea ice extent in different CO2 emission scenarios from sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a. The dashed horizontal lines indicate the corresponding values in the control experiment for the winter of 2012–2013.

    Figure  7.  Area of sea ice extent with a concentration of more than 15% in the Liaodong Bay from the control experiment and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a.

    Figure  8.  Total volume of sea ice in the Liaodong Bay from the control experiment and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a.

    Figure  9.  Mean thickness of the sea ice in the Liaodong Bay from the control experiment and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a.

    Figure  10.  The role of each atmospheric factor in the sea ice extent decline to the end of the 21st century. The first bar of each panel (noted as Ref) shows the difference between sea ice extent area on January 27 in the winter of the 2090s (from the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a) and the winter of 2012–2013 (from the control experiment) in the Liaodong Bay. The other bars indicate the area differences between the control experiment and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-b, in which only one of the atmospheric variables (noted in x-axis) is edited according to the climate forecasts for the 2090s and the others remain unchanged from the control experiment.

    A1.  Sea surface temperature (SST, a–c) from the control experiment (solid grey lines) and the sensitive experiment Exp-Ini-Temp (dashed black lines), whose initial temperature is 2°C higher than the control experiment; sea surface salinity (SSS, d–f) from the control experiment (solid grey lines) and the sensitive experiment Exp-Ini-Salt (dashed black lines), whose initial salinity is 1 kg/kg lower than the control experiment. The location of station A01 is shown in Fig. 1.

    A2.  Area of sea ice (a, d), Mean sea ice thickness (b, e), and total sea ice volume (c, f) from the control experiment (solid grey lines) and two sensitive experiments (dashed black lines), Exp-Ini-Temp (left panels), whose initial temperature is 2°C higher than the control experiment, and Exp-Ini-Salt (right panels), whose initial salinity is 1 kg/kg lower than the control experiment.

    A3.  Observed (grey lines) and modelled (black lines) sea surface temperature at three located marked by blue triangles in Fig. 1.

    A4.  Sea ice concentration (background color) and sea ice thickness (colorful contours) in the control experiment for the winter of 2012 – 2013 (a) and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a for the future in the RCP 8.5 scenario (b–i). The white contours indicate the 15% concentration of sea ice. Only the results with maximum sea ice extent in each experiment are shown.

    A5.  Sea ice concentration (background color) and sea ice thickness (colorful contours) in the control experiment for the winter of 2012 – 2013 (a) and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a for the future in the RCP 6.0 scenario (b–i). The white contours indicate the 15% concentration of sea ice. Only the results with maximum sea ice extent in each experiment are shown.

    A6.  Sea ice concentration (background color) and sea ice thickness (colorful contours) in the control experiment for the winter of 2012–2013 (a) and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a for the future in the RCP 4.5 scenario (b–i). The white contours indicate the 15% concentration of sea ice. Only the results with maximum sea ice extent in each experiment are shown.

    A7.  Sea ice concentration (background color) and sea ice thickness (colorful contours) in the control experiment for the winter of 2012–2013 (a) and the sensitive experiments Exp-SE-a for the future in the RCP 2.6 scenario (b–i). The white contours indicate the 15% concentration of sea ice. Only the results with maximum sea ice extent in each experiment are shown.

    Table  1.   Sources of mean state of atmosphere in different CO2 emission scenarios

    ScenarioModelEnsemble membersReference
    RCP 8.5GFDL-GSM2Mr10i1p1–r19i1p1Rodgers et al. (2015)
    RCP 6.0HadGEM2-ESr1i1p1–r4i1p1Collins et al. (2011)
    RCP 4.5CSIRO-MK3.6r1i1p1–r10i1p1Rotstayn et al. (2010)
    RCP 2.6CanESM2Mr1i1p1–r5i1p1Arora et al. (2011)
    下载: 导出CSV

    A1.   Change in wintertime (November to March) atmospheric conditions in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the winter of 2012–2013

    PeriodSpecific humidity/
    (10–6 kg·kg–1)
    Precip/
    (10–6 kg·m–2·s–1)
    DLW/
    (W·m–2)
    DSW/
    (W·m–2)
    Air
    temperature/°C
    Zonal wind
    speed/(m·s−1)
    Meridional wind
    speed/(m·s−1)
    2021–203025.778–1.1680.4190.6640.3660.1210.011
    2031–2040–4.295–2.0280.9342.9670.7440.1600.028
    2041–2050126.452–1.4433.6013.9651.1690.2210.010
    2051–2060196.402–0.4066.1853.2971.3680.1120.002
    2061–2070357.8750.14610.5239.7572.2850.1470.033
    2071–2080568.9382.33115.98925.2363.3490.1700.062
    2081–2090628.2512.02817.71725.5543.5500.1400.016
    2091–2100723.3342.47519.79825.9134.0980.1510.067
    Note: DSW and DLW indicate the surface downward shortwave radiation and the surface downward longwave radiation, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV

    A2.   Change in wintertime (November to March) atmospheric conditions in the RCP 6.0 scenario compared to the winter of 2012–2013

    PeriodSpecific humidity/
    (10–6 kg·kg–1)
    Precip/
    (10–6 kg·m–2·s–1)
    DLW/
    (W·m–2)
    DSW
    (W·m–2)
    Air
    temperature/°C
    Zonal wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    Meridional wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    2021–2030204.237–0.6154.648–0.4071.3390.1640.277
    2031–2040170.118–0.6464.697–0.7361.3730.1340.301
    2041–2050263.688–0.3787.890–1.9251.6800.1520.245
    2051–2060289.583–0.8939.1950.5082.6280.1570.356
    2061–2070386.868–0.54511.6380.2132.8460.1630.304
    2071–2080548.500–0.14115.6690.9653.6650.1350.292
    2081–2090634.7480.02317.7572.3264.1890.1850.309
    2091–2100740.741–0.13719.9902.7004.7370.2320.385
    Note: DSW and DLW indicate the surface downward shortwave radiation and the surface downward longwave radiation, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV

    A3.   Change in wintertime (November to March) atmospheric conditions in the RCP 4.5 scenario compared to the winter of 2012–2013

    PeriodSpecific humidity/
    (10–6 kg·kg–1)
    Precip/
    (10–6 kg·m–2·s–1)
    DLW/
    (W·m–2)
    DSW
    (W·m–2)
    Air
    temperature/°C
    Zonal wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    Meridional wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    2021–2030102.5360.6552.829–0.9350.5420.0330.158
    2031–2040234.7751.5045.9130.3151.020–0.0030.221
    2041–2050344.4601.9418.6111.2251.504–0.0590.262
    2051–2060431.6522.53810.6161.7401.817–0.0450.289
    2061–2070539.0222.86112.8112.2942.227–0.1110.304
    2071–2080580.0752.92414.1042.0512.331–0.1050.307
    2081–2090617.1753.16314.7582.1412.454–0.0870.350
    2091–2100613.9103.16314.8672.1672.488–0.0980.329
    Note: DSW and DLW indicate the surface downward shortwave radiation and the surface downward longwave radiation, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV

    A4.   Change in wintertime (November to March) atmospheric conditions in the RCP 2.6 scenario compared to the winter of 2012–2013

    PeriodSpecific humidity/
    (10–6 kg·kg–1)
    Precip/
    (10–6 kg·m–2·s–1)
    DLW/
    (W·m–2)
    DSW
    (W·m–2)
    Air
    temperature/°C
    Zonal wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    Meridional wind
    speed/(m·s–l)
    2021–2030169.5200.049–0.2216.4500.7290.3790.189
    2031–2040395.9810.0773.0338.5811.5170.3810.420
    2041–2050385.460–0.0172.98210.6111.4880.4160.329
    2051–2060350.707–0.0132.87510.5321.2760.3330.308
    2061–2070387.610–1.1152.17412.4421.5640.3580.332
    2071–2080399.049–1.7622.42412.6741.5260.3850.352
    2081–2090350.722–1.6591.15813.2901.3950.5590.314
    2091–2100300.425–1.071–0.01513.8551.0980.5100.327
    Note: DSW and DLW indicate the surface downward shortwave radiation and the surface downward longwave radiation, respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2020-07-21
  • 录用日期:  2020-10-22
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-06-08

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